Analysis of the development situation of domestic general synthetic rubber industry in 2014
Time：2014-02-17 15:45:54 Page view (1114)
In 2013, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber and SBS industries experienced the cost squeeze, the decline of industry profit margin and the rapid expansion of production capacity. In 2014, the technical research, product differentiation competition and demand development of the above-mentioned industries were improved. Can it effectively alleviate the current situation of the industry downturn? The following is an effective rationalization of supply and demand, new technologies and new developments in the industry in 2014.
Butadiene: demand dominates the market
The aura of butadiene star products in 2011-2012 is still vivid, and the butadiene market in 2013 has no longer been seen. From the downstream rubber price situation and the overall trend of natural rubber, the production of butadiene in the butene oxidative dehydrogenation process in 2014 is still difficult to survive due to cost constraints. The first quarter of each year is the concentration period for the maintenance of partial cracking units in the market. In 2014, it was no exception. However, the price of butadiene has been significantly weakened by the decline in the price of butadiene. . In the first quarter, there is still a lot of doubts about whether the butadiene market and the downstream synthetic rubber market can complement each other. The situation of ''one loss is both damage and one glory is good'' is difficult to replicate during the year.
Styrene-butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber: the contradiction between supply and demand is effectively relieved
According to statistics, the total output of styrene-butadiene rubber in 2013 was about 1.08 million tons, and the effective utilization rate of production capacity was 73%. The total output of latex styrene-butadiene rubber and solution-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber decreased in 2012. In 2013, the total production of butadiene rubber was about 830,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and the efficient utilization rate of production capacity was 52%. According to the current level of equipment construction, the domestic production capacity of styrene-butadiene and butadiene rubber will continue to grow. In 2014, the planned production capacity of styrene-butadiene rubber will reach 220,000 tons, of which more than 70% of the net production capacity is dissolved. Benzene rubber; in 2014, it is expected that more than 300,000 tons of butadiene rubber will be added, and most of the new projects will be delayed production capacity based on 2013. Zhuo Chuang Information expects that the supply of styrene-butadiene rubber in 2014 will not change much in 2013, but the competition for the polymerization of styrene-butadiene rubber will become more intense. In 2014, the supply of cis-butadiene rubber will become more prominent. Utilization will drop to 40% or even lower.
The future development of styrenic thermoplastic elastomers is obvious
In 2013, SBC enterprises were no longer the only ones in the middle of the word, and private enterprises such as Ningbo Keyuan and Shandong Jusheng have undergone technological transformation. The Chinese word is not far behind. Baling Petrochemical's annual production of 20,000 tons of SEPS industrial plant project began in 2014. The project is a self-developed technology without precedent. SEPS is a hydrogenated product of SIS and is a high-end variety of lithium-based polymers. At present, there are only two industrialized products supplied by the United States and Japan, and the promotion of new Baling Petrochemical projects will get rid of the pattern of SEPS products relying on imports. In addition, there are no shortage of manufacturers that produce SSBR in the original SBC production line; the differentiated competition of styrenic thermoplastic elastomer products will be more concentrated.
New tire production capacity is concentrated, can we reverse the market dilemma of butadiene and butadiene rubber
In contrast to the situation of the rubber raw material market in the ''deep water hot'' in 2013, the profit of the tire market is abundant, and there is no shortage of the single-quarter profit of the listed companies of the tires, which is 10-20% higher than the ring. According to Zhuo Chuang Information's incomplete statistics, only Shandong Province's net increase of semi-steel tires in 2014 will reach 285 million, and the net increase in all-steel tires will reach 30 million. It is not difficult to see from the above data that in 2014, the added capacity of semi-steel tires in Shandong Province was 9 times that of all steel tires. Therefore, from the perspective of demand in 2014, the market for styrene-butadiene rubber is much better than the market for butadiene rubber.
《Green tire technical specifications, industry self-regulation standards can promote SSBR, NDBR embark on a healthy development path
The “Green Tire Technical Specification” industry self-regulation standard has been formulated and completed by the China Rubber Industry Association. It is expected to be officially released by the China Rubber Industry Association in the first quarter of 2014. This standard specifies the terms and definitions, requirements, and verification methods for green tires. It is applicable to passenger car radial tires and truck radial tires. This will undoubtedly be a 'snow in the snow' for companies with SSBRNDBR production capacity in China. The introduction of the above guidance will undoubtedly promote the development of new varieties of styrene-butadiene rubber and rare earth butadiene rubber. Promotion and application.
Butadiene: demand dominates the market
The aura of butadiene star products in 2011-2012 is still vivid, and the butadiene market in 2013 has no longer been seen. From the downstream rubber price situation and the overall trend of natural rubber, the production of butadiene in the butene oxidative dehydrogenation process in 2014 is still difficult to survive due to cost constraints. The first quarter of each year is the concentration period for the maintenance of partial cracking units in the market. In 2014, it was no exception. However, the price of butadiene has been significantly weakened by the decline in the price of butadiene. . In the first quarter, there is still a lot of doubts about whether the butadiene market and the downstream synthetic rubber market can complement each other. The situation of ''one loss is both damage and one glory is good'' is difficult to replicate during the year.
Styrene-butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber: the contradiction between supply and demand is effectively relieved
According to statistics, the total output of styrene-butadiene rubber in 2013 was about 1.08 million tons, and the effective utilization rate of production capacity was 73%. The total output of latex styrene-butadiene rubber and solution-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber decreased in 2012. In 2013, the total production of butadiene rubber was about 830,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and the efficient utilization rate of production capacity was 52%. According to the current level of equipment construction, the domestic production capacity of styrene-butadiene and butadiene rubber will continue to grow. In 2014, the planned production capacity of styrene-butadiene rubber will reach 220,000 tons, of which more than 70% of the net production capacity is dissolved. Benzene rubber; in 2014, it is expected that more than 300,000 tons of butadiene rubber will be added, and most of the new projects will be delayed production capacity based on 2013. Zhuo Chuang Information expects that the supply of styrene-butadiene rubber in 2014 will not change much in 2013, but the competition for the polymerization of styrene-butadiene rubber will become more intense. In 2014, the supply of cis-butadiene rubber will become more prominent. Utilization will drop to 40% or even lower.
The future development of styrenic thermoplastic elastomers is obvious
In 2013, SBC enterprises were no longer the only ones in the middle of the word, and private enterprises such as Ningbo Keyuan and Shandong Jusheng have undergone technological transformation. The Chinese word is not far behind. Baling Petrochemical's annual production of 20,000 tons of SEPS industrial plant project began in 2014. The project is a self-developed technology without precedent. SEPS is a hydrogenated product of SIS and is a high-end variety of lithium-based polymers. At present, there are only two industrialized products supplied by the United States and Japan, and the promotion of new Baling Petrochemical projects will get rid of the pattern of SEPS products relying on imports. In addition, there are no shortage of manufacturers that produce SSBR in the original SBC production line; the differentiated competition of styrenic thermoplastic elastomer products will be more concentrated.
New tire production capacity is concentrated, can we reverse the market dilemma of butadiene and butadiene rubber
In contrast to the situation of the rubber raw material market in the ''deep water hot'' in 2013, the profit of the tire market is abundant, and there is no shortage of the single-quarter profit of the listed companies of the tires, which is 10-20% higher than the ring. According to Zhuo Chuang Information's incomplete statistics, only Shandong Province's net increase of semi-steel tires in 2014 will reach 285 million, and the net increase in all-steel tires will reach 30 million. It is not difficult to see from the above data that in 2014, the added capacity of semi-steel tires in Shandong Province was 9 times that of all steel tires. Therefore, from the perspective of demand in 2014, the market for styrene-butadiene rubber is much better than the market for butadiene rubber.
《Green tire technical specifications, industry self-regulation standards can promote SSBR, NDBR embark on a healthy development path
The “Green Tire Technical Specification” industry self-regulation standard has been formulated and completed by the China Rubber Industry Association. It is expected to be officially released by the China Rubber Industry Association in the first quarter of 2014. This standard specifies the terms and definitions, requirements, and verification methods for green tires. It is applicable to passenger car radial tires and truck radial tires. This will undoubtedly be a 'snow in the snow' for companies with SSBRNDBR production capacity in China. The introduction of the above guidance will undoubtedly promote the development of new varieties of styrene-butadiene rubber and rare earth butadiene rubber. Promotion and application.
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